CONVERGENCE ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE LAKE TOBA REGION REGENCY USING PANEL DATA

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the convergence of economic growth in 8 (eight) districts in the Lake Toba Region for the period 2013-2022. The convergence analyzed includes sigma convergence, absolute beta convergence, and conditional beta convergence. Conditional beta convergence analysis uses several control variables, namely the Human Development Index, Tourism sector GRDP, and Road Infrastructure. The data used in this study is panel data. The research data comes from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) North Sumatra. Data analysis uses the panel data analysis method with the Common Effect Model (CEM) approach. The results of the analysis showed that there was a sigma convergence of economic growth in the 8 (eight) districts in the Lake Toba Region during the 2013-2022 period. That is, there are indications that the dispersion of economic growth in the 8 (eight) districts of the Lake Toba Region is getting smaller. In addition, absolute beta convergence and conditional beta convergence were also found to occur, these findings indicate that the growth of per capita income of districts that are still lagging is higher than that of developed districts. The absolute beta convergence rate is 3.04 percent per year and takes 22.8 years to reach the Half-time Convergence condition. Meanwhile, the conditional beta convergence rate per year is 2.47 percent, and takes 28.01 years to reach a Half-time Convergence condition.