ANALYSIS OF VOTER BEHAVIOR IN THE 2024 ACEH GOVERNOR ELECTION: SAIFR EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODEL APPROACH

Abstract

This article proposes a SAIFR (Susceptible–Apathetic-Independent–Figurative–Resolved) epidemiological model to analyze voter behavior in the 2024 Aceh Governor Election. The model classifies voters into five compartments: susceptible voters (S), apathetic voters (A), independent voters (I), voters influenced by the political figure of Muzakir Manaf, the former commander of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) (F), and resolved voters (R). This model is developed within a non-contagion framework, where transitions between compartments are determined by rate parameters representing the influence of campaigns, political figures, and individual decisions, without assuming interactions between voters. Pre-election survey data and official vote recapitulations were used to calibrate the model parameters. Simulation results indicate that the majority of voters ultimately accumulate in compartment R (resolved), with the dominant transition path proceeding from susceptible to figurative and then to resolved (S to F to R). Sensitivity analysis identified parameters β (susceptible to apathetic), ???? (susceptible to resolved), and φ (figurative to resolved) as key factors determining the final turnout. These findings confirm that the attractiveness of local political figures and campaign effectiveness play a more important role than horizontal interactions between voters in determining turnout patterns.